122 comments
174 forecasters
Will the median prediction on this question fall in range [1-48]% OR [95-99]%?
99%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 99% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Authors:
Opened:Jul 16, 2020
Closes:Aug 15, 2020
Resolved:Aug 16, 2020
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 17, 2020
Conditional on EV median range, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?
12 forecasters
What percentage of Americans will consider AI or advancement of computers/technology to be the most important problem in January 2028?
18 % mentioning
(9 - 35)
18 % mentioning
(9 - 35)
146 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
8% chance
161