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[Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?


At the time of writing, The Three Gorges Dam is nearly full, and has experienced some "deformation". A partial failure of the dam could be catastrophic for the hundreds of millions of people who live downstream of the dam. Due to the deformation and ongoing full release of water, there is some speculation about failure.

This question asks:

Will there be a partial or complete failure of the Three Gorges Dam before the end of September?

Resolution will be by credible media reports, for positive resolution the reports must indicate that a failure occured before midnight (local time) on 2020/09/30.

Failure as a result of deliberate human action with the intent to cause it, for example sabotage or terrorist activity, triggers ambiguous resolution.

In the case of conflicting media reports, a call can be made by a Metaculus Admin, though in this case they may choose to resolve as Ambiguous.

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Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.