8 comments
123 forecasters
Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?
1%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jul 26, 2020
Closes:Dec 31, 2020
Resolved:Dec 31, 2020
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 28, 2020
Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?
35% chance
35
Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?
8% chance
52
How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake from 2020 - 2029?
68.1k deaths
(42.7k - 121k)
68.1k deaths
(42.7k - 121k)
52 forecasters