77 comments
94 forecasters
If tested, would GPT-3 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 4th graders?
26%chance
Ambiguous
The community gave this a 26% chance, and it resolved Ambiguous.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jul 31, 2020
Closes:Jan 2, 2021
Resolved:Jan 7, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 1, 2020
Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?
96% chance
2.7k
Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?
5% chance
128
When will an AI-written paper first get published in a top 50 scientific journal according to the Scimago Journal rankings?
06 Sep 2028
(01 Apr 2026 - Jun 2033)
06 Sep 2028
(01 Apr 2026 - Jun 2033)
23 forecasters