290 forecasters

Will there be active warfare between the United States and China before 2027?

2.5%chance

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Authors:

Opened:

Aug 13, 2020

Closes:

Dec 30, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 30, 2027

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 14, 2020

China Gets Tough on Trump

Atlantic•Oct 23, 2025

Historians Don't Think a US Civil War Is Likely—but They're Still Nervous

Wired•Oct 22, 2025

Photos Show US and Allies Staging War Games Near China

Newsweek•Oct 22, 2025

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