53 forecasters

Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be extended or replaced by its expiration on February 5th 2021?

70%chance

70%chance

ResolvedYes

ResolvedYes

The community gave this a 70% chance, and it resolved Yes.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Aug 10, 2020

Closes:

Nov 29, 2020

Resolved:

Jan 27, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 12, 2020

2020 Leaderboard

Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027?

Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?