Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!
Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.
This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.
This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.
The Metaculus leaderboard shows the top players by cumulative points earned for resolved questions. As of August 7th 2020, the top user is traviswfisher with 23184 total points.
This question asks, what will be the earliest date after August 7th 2020 in which traviswfisher is no longer the top player?
In the case the Metaculus leaderboard is overhauled, this question resolves ambiguously.
The question resolves as "> Aug 7, 2030" if traviswfisher are not unseated by then.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.