Question

Is the Metaculus prediction better than all users?

Resolved:No

20 comments20

Total Forecasters83

Community Prediction

50%

(39% - 56%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 50%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-55.3

Community Peer Score

4.0

Authors:

traviswfisher

Opened:

Jul 22, 2017

Closes:

Oct 20, 2017

Resolves:

Jan 12, 2018

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 24, 2017

Economy & Business

Computing and Math

2017 Leaderboard

Will Metaculus exist in 2030?

95%

Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

85%

When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?

Jun 2050