22 comments
160 forecasters
When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Aug 7, 2017
Closes:Aug 3, 2018
Resolved:Oct 22, 2018
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 8, 2017
When will a language model be developed that, when tested, yields approximately human-level output?
05 Jun 2024
(05 May 2023 - 10 Feb 2027)
05 Jun 2024
(05 May 2023 - 10 Feb 2027)
36 forecasters
When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks?
03 Jul 2026
(27 Jul 2025 - 15 May 2028)
03 Jul 2026
(27 Jul 2025 - 15 May 2028)
68 forecasters
What will be the best score by an AI on the full Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) before 2026?
60.8%
(51.6 - 72.1)
60.8%
(51.6 - 72.1)
47 forecasters