This question was proposed by a metaculus user who wished to remain anonymous, though it has since been edited.
In 2016, 17.2% of ballots were cast via early in-person voting, according to the U.S. Election Assistance Commission. However, both the ongoing pandemic and concerns about attacks on mail-in voting by the Republican candidate mean that the option of early in-person voting has a higher profile than usual. This question asks:
What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be cast via early in-person voting?
For the purpose of this question, 'mail-in' or 'absentee' ballots that are dropped off by the voter or their proxy at a designated drop-off location are not considered to be cast via early in-person voting.
If it is for some reason not possible to calculate the exact share of ballots that are cast via early in-person voting, this question will resolve on the basis of the moderators' best estimate.
If there is no US election in 2020, this question resolves ambiguously.