formulating definitive estimations mapping critical understanding generating calibrated wisdom modeling precise estimations exploring intelligent forecasts mapping the future forecasting critical predictions mapping predictive forecasts generating predictive forecasts composing intelligent understanding aggregating probable understanding formulating quantitative insights composing quantitative insights generating precise wisdom
Rankings Categories Find Questions

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

When will there be an easily applied, reversible, male contraceptive (aka a male "pill") on the US market?

Aside from condoms and vasectomies, men do not have any safe, simple, effective means of birth control. There have been many efforts to achieve this and currently there are many approaches being worked on, but despite some optimism all are still in the experimental stage as of mid-2017.

When will such contraception be available to US men?

For resolution, the contraceptive method must be effective (better than condoms), easy (a minor procedure compared with vasectomy) and reversible (self-reversing without further application, or reversed about as easily as the original procedure.)

It must also be actually available to anyone (of appropriate health, willingness to pay, etc.), outside of a clinical trial.

Categories: Biology, Human Sciences – General, Industry – Pharmaceutical, Technology – Biotech

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site
random question question list

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.