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Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?

Trump's presidency has had a rough start. Already starting with a small electoral vote victory, successive scandals and policy defeats have dropped Trump's approval rating down to below 40% as of August 5th 2017, according to most pollsters. Mueller's investigation will likely put further pressure on the Administration, and a possible recession with a currently strong economy would be disastrous.

But all is not lost for Trump. Approval ratings have been historically mean-reverting, with initially unpopular presidents slowly gaining popularity as their presidency continues. BIll Clinton had a sub-40% approval rating six months into his presidency, but eventually rebounded to 60% by the end of his presidency. Even after Ford's rating tanked after his pardoning of Nixon, he managed to (barely) crawl above 50% approval. By keeping further scandals to a minimum, maintaining a strong economy and earning some policy victories, Trump could slowly rebound over the next three years.

On a more morbid note, Bush's popularity skyrocketed after the 9/11 attacks in a "Rally Around the Flag" effect. Another major terrorist attack could likewise spike Trump's popularity, at least temporarily.

By November 6, 2018, will there be a day where Trump's approval rating is 50% or above on 538's aggregate "all polls" approval tracker?


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