forecasting critical understanding formulating predictive predictions delivering critical wisdom delivering accurate understanding aggregating critical estimations mapping the future delivering predictive understanding modeling contingent understanding exploring probable futures delivering calibrated futures delivering quantitative understanding generating precise forecasts modeling definitive predictions forecasting calibrated futures


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?

Trump's presidency has had a rough start. Already starting with a small electoral vote victory, successive scandals and policy defeats have dropped Trump's approval rating down to below 40% as of August 5th 2017, according to most pollsters. Mueller's investigation will likely put further pressure on the Administration, and a possible recession with a currently strong economy would be disastrous.

But all is not lost for Trump. Approval ratings have been historically mean-reverting, with initially unpopular presidents slowly gaining popularity as their presidency continues. BIll Clinton had a sub-40% approval rating six months into his presidency, but eventually rebounded to 60% by the end of his presidency. Even after Ford's rating tanked after his pardoning of Nixon, he managed to (barely) crawl above 50% approval. By keeping further scandals to a minimum, maintaining a strong economy and earning some policy victories, Trump could slowly rebound over the next three years.

On a more morbid note, Bush's popularity skyrocketed after the 9/11 attacks in a "Rally Around the Flag" effect. Another major terrorist attack could likewise spike Trump's popularity, at least temporarily.

By November 6, 2018, will there be a day where Trump's approval rating is 50% or above on 538's aggregate "all polls" approval tracker?


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.