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Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?
Trump's presidency has had a rough start. Already starting with a small electoral vote victory, successive scandals and policy defeats have dropped Trump's approval rating down to below 40% as of August 5th 2017, according to most pollsters. Mueller's investigation will likely put further pressure on the Administration, and a possible recession with a currently strong economy would be disastrous.
But all is not lost for Trump. Approval ratings have been historically mean-reverting, with initially unpopular presidents slowly gaining popularity as their presidency continues. BIll Clinton had a sub-40% approval rating six months into his presidency, but eventually rebounded to 60% by the end of his presidency. Even after Ford's rating tanked after his pardoning of Nixon, he managed to (barely) crawl above 50% approval. By keeping further scandals to a minimum, maintaining a strong economy and earning some policy victories, Trump could slowly rebound over the next three years.
On a more morbid note, Bush's popularity skyrocketed after the 9/11 attacks in a "Rally Around the Flag" effect. Another major terrorist attack could likewise spike Trump's popularity, at least temporarily.
By November 6, 2018, will there be a day where Trump's approval rating is 50% or above on 538's aggregate "all polls" approval tracker?
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.