88 comments
362 forecasters
Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?
0.1%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 0% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Aug 22, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2025
Resolved:Mar 16, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 23, 2020
Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic have revenue of at least $100B in 2027?
50% chance
119
Will Robin Hanson win his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?
1.1% chance
72
Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage about the state of AI at the end of 2027?
76 forecasters