Question

If at least one human challenge trial is run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?

Resolved:Ambiguous

25 comments25

Total Forecasters49

Community Prediction

411k

(300k - 529k)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	<10k	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>10M
community	0.4%	300.1k	410.7k	529k	0.3%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<10k	0.4%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	300.1k	—
median	410.7k	—
upper 75%	529k	—
Upper bound
>10M	0.3%	—

What was the final result?Ambiguous

Authors:

amanda@ought

Opened:

Sep 1, 2020

Closes:

Feb 4, 2021

Resolves:

Feb 21, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 3, 2020

Possible Worlds Series (with Ought)

Health & Pandemics

2020-2021 Leaderboard

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