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Human challenge trials involve deliberately exposing participants to infection in order to study diseases and test vaccines or treatments. As of August 19, 2020, the organization 1Day Sooner had recruited 34,804 volunteers for COVID-19 human challenge trials. This Metaculus question asks when a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people will be completed. The current median community prediction is February 5, 2021.

How many deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19 will occur if at least one human challenge trial is run before February 5, 2021, in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people?

Resolution:

• Whether a human challenge trial for COVID-19 has occurred will be based on the resolution of the question: When will a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people be completed?
• If a human challenge trial occurs before February 5, 2021, then this question will resolve as the resolution of this question: How many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?
• If no human challenge trial for COVID-19 takes place before February 5, 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.

Other possible world:

• If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?

See the rest of the Possible Worlds Series here.