Question

If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?

Resolved:460.4k

25 comments25

Total Forecasters50

Community Prediction

460k

(352k - 574k)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	<10k	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>10M
community	0.2%	352.5k	459.7k	574k	0.3%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<10k	0.2%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	352.5k	—
median	459.7k	—
upper 75%	574k	—
Upper bound
>10M	0.3%	—

What was the final result?460.4k

Community Peer Score

27.0

Authors:

amanda@ought

Opened:

Sep 1, 2020

Closes:

Feb 4, 2021

Resolves:

Mar 4, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 3, 2020

Possible Worlds Series (with Ought)

Health & Pandemics

2020-2021 Leaderboard

How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?

117k

How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025?

143k

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

1.11