99 comments
200 forecasters
Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?
25%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 25% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Aug 30, 2020
Closes:Apr 30, 2021
Resolved:Nov 19, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 31, 2020
Will any court sentence Luigi Mangione to death before 2030?
18% chance
14
Will Donald Trump pardon anyone involved in these cases of political violence during his second term?
18 forecasters
When will someone first be convicted of a murder that occurred outside of Earth's atmosphere?
Jan 2074
(Feb 2050 - 2110)
Jan 2074
(Feb 2050 - 2110)
43 forecasters