Question
Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2023?
Resolved:-28Total Forecasters65
Community Prediction
2.8
(-6.71 - 12.1)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | -6.707 | — |
| median | 2.797 | — |
| upper 75% | 12.06 | — |
What was the final result?-28
Community Baseline Score
22.5
Community Peer Score
21.7
Authors:
Opened:Sep 24, 2020
Closes:Dec 31, 2022
Resolves:Dec 31, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 26, 2020
Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?
39%
If there are 100 deaths in conflict between China and Taiwan before 2050, will Taiwan receive direct military support from allied nations?
80%
On January 1, 2030, what will be the difference (in FLOP) between the largest AI models from non-authoritarian and authoritarian countries?
3.1×10²⁵
Authors:
Opened:Sep 24, 2020
Closes:Dec 31, 2022
Resolves:Dec 31, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 26, 2020
Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?
39%
If there are 100 deaths in conflict between China and Taiwan before 2050, will Taiwan receive direct military support from allied nations?
80%
On January 1, 2030, what will be the difference (in FLOP) between the largest AI models from non-authoritarian and authoritarian countries?
3.1×10²⁵