Question

Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2023?

Resolved:-28

20 comments20

Total Forecasters65

Community Prediction

2.8

(-6.71 - 12.1)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%
community	-6.707	2.797	12.06
My Prediction	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	-6.707	—
median	2.797	—
upper 75%	12.06	—

What was the final result?-28

Community Baseline Score

22.5

Community Peer Score

21.7

Authors:

shibboleth

Opened:

Sep 24, 2020

Closes:

Dec 31, 2022

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 26, 2020

Geopolitics

Politics

2016-2025 Leaderboard

Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?

39%

If there are 100 deaths in conflict between China and Taiwan before 2050, will Taiwan receive direct military support from allied nations?

80%

On January 1, 2030, what will be the difference (in FLOP) between the largest AI models from non-authoritarian and authoritarian countries?

3.1×10²⁵

Authors:

shibboleth

Opened:

Sep 24, 2020

Closes:

Dec 31, 2022

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 26, 2020

Geopolitics

Politics

2016-2025 Leaderboard

Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?

39%

If there are 100 deaths in conflict between China and Taiwan before 2050, will Taiwan receive direct military support from allied nations?

80%

On January 1, 2030, what will be the difference (in FLOP) between the largest AI models from non-authoritarian and authoritarian countries?

3.1×10²⁵