9 comments
18 forecasters
Will the CZU Lightning Complex be ranked ahead of the LNU Lightning Complex on the destructiveness list once both are extinguished?
67%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 67% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Aug 31, 2020
Closes:Sep 8, 2020
Resolved:Oct 30, 2020
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 2, 2020
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will any U.S. state experience a permanent population decline of at least 10% between 2025 and 2035?
5% chance
22
Will wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, before 2031?
47% chance
70
Will California have a lower GDP per capita than at most nine countries in the world in 2050?
55% chance
12