Bitcoin's market dominant status

Your submission is now in Draft mode. Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!


Bitcoin (BTC) is one of 100s of cryptocurrencies. While not exactly the first 'digital gold', it is the first successful and enjoys a first mover advantage in the competition in terms of market share (of all money invested in cryptocurrency). In the summer of 2017, Bitcoin seemed poised to lose its position as coin number 1 to Ethereum (ETH), however, it eventually gained back its dominance. Also in early 2018, BTC lost dominance and was down to about 33% of the market, but then again bounced back. It currently has a market share of 57% according to's estimate.

When will Bitcoin lose its position as number one cryptocurrency?

  • Data from's page.
  • Question resolves positively when Bitcoin reaches a lower market share than any other single coin.
  • In case the question does not resolve positive prior to 2050-09-06, the question resolves as ">2050-09-05".

Make a Prediction


Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site