Question

Will the UN host a meeting in November to continue discussions regarding lethal autonomous weapons?

Resolved:Yes

2 comments2

Total Forecasters37

Community Prediction

63%

(60% - 84%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 63%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

31.8

Community Peer Score

-5.8

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Aug 21, 2017

Closes:

Oct 15, 2017

Resolves:

Nov 14, 2017

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 22, 2017

Technology

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2017 Leaderboard

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems before 2031?

8.6%

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80%

When will a G-20 country field fully-autonomous, no human-in-the-loop lethal military AI weapon systems?

May 2031