Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
a
/
文
Log in
Sign Up
28
comments
62
forecasters
How will Trump's popular vote share compare to FiveThirtyEight's prediction?
community
0.453
result
1.782
Share
Comments
Timeline
In the News
Key Factors
Question Info
Timeline
1d
1w
2m
all
Resolution Criteria
Background Info
Follow
embed
Authors:
krtnu
Opened:
Sep 16, 2020
Closes:
Nov 2, 2020
Resolved:
Dec 15, 2020
Spot Scoring Time:
Sep 17, 2020
Elections
Politics
🏆 2020 Leaderboard
News Match
Nate Silver Says Polls May Be ‘Overestimating’ Trump After ‘Huge’ Miss
Newsweek
•
Nov 6, 2025
Analysis: The most striking stats of the 2025 election
CNN
•
Nov 6, 2025
Here's what CBS News exit polls told us about the 2025 elections
CBS
•
Nov 5, 2025
Show More News
Learn more
about Metaculus NewsMatch
Similar Questions
Will Donald Trump have a positive net favorability rate on December 20, 2025, according to 538?
1%
chance
2.1k
Will "Change in Average Inflation Rate" correctly predict the popular vote winner in the 2028 US presidential election?
"Change in Average Inflation Rate" will correctly predict the 2028 Popular Vote Winner
60%
"Change in Average Inflation Rate" will be below 0% for the 2028 election
40%
3
forecasters
What will Donald Trump's net approval be on November 2, 2026?
-11
(-14.7 - -7.04)
-11
(-14.7 - -7.04)
142
forecasters
Show More Questions
