Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
Relaxation of Maximum Group Size in England
Due to a resurgence in the number of cases of COVID-19, from 14th September 2020 it will be against the law to meet people you do not live with in a group larger than six in England. This government webpage gives more details, including certain exceptions such as for work or education.
The Health Secretary has said that this rule won't be in place for "any longer than we have to". But how long will this be?
That is, when will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?
The question will resolve when it is legal for any seven people to meet for any purpose in England.
The question is about the law, not about any unenforceable government guidance. It resolves even if seven-person meetings are allowed conditional on the participants following other restrictions, such as meeting outside or wearing face coverings.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.