President Trump and Joseph R. Biden Jr. will debate with a single moderator at each of their three matchups, the Commission on Presidential Debates announced on Wednesday, September 2.
The first debate of the general election, on Sept. 29, will be moderated by the “Fox News Sunday” anchor Chris Wallace. Mr. Wallace received high marks for his debut debate in 2016 and is known for his sharp interviewing style.
Trump currently (September 14) trails Biden in the 538 polling average by 7.2%; Biden has 50.7% in the polling average, and Trump is on 43.5%.
Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?
For a positive resolution, Trump's polling average as reported by 538 must drop by at least five full percentage points relative to the number reported as of 00:00 on September 29, the day the first debate is to take place, before 00:00 on October 14, both dates in Eastern Time.
For example, if Trump has 43.5% in the polling average on September 29, he must drop to 38.5% or lower before October 14 for a positive resolution.
Note that this question does not ask if Trump will finish that period with a 5-point drop in the polls; it resolves positively if Trump ever drops 5 points or more between September 29 and October 14, even if he recovers before October 14.
This question is conditional on the first debate between Trump and Biden actually taking place. If it does not, the question resolves ambiguously. The question also resolves ambiguously if 538 fails to report a polling average figure over the relevant time period.