28 comments
48 forecasters
When will American Metaculus users face an emigration crisis?
Current estimate
>Dec 2030
Key Factors
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Forecast Timeline
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Sep 27, 2020
Closes:Dec 25, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Dec 26, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 29, 2020
Will any U.S. state enact or enforce new public-health restrictions on entry of residents of other U.S. states before 2029?
20% chance
8
Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?
60% chance
41
Will any U.S. authority refuse to recognize the citizenship of U.S.-born children of non-citizen parents for 90 days in the following years?
45 forecasters