Various sources have predicted a possibility of social unrest following the 2020 US presidential elections due to timing of vote counts, disputes over validity of votes, and the desire to transfer power peacefully. One example of a serious thinker proposing this is John Cochrane, the Grumpy Economist: https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2020/09/st…
Tensions in 2020 are up (at least in the headlines) following a year of varied lockdowns and protests for social justice. There's some debate to be had whether social unhappiness is truly large or is magnified in the media and social media.
I'm wondering what kind of non-ambiguous questions we can come up with to capture the possibility of some of the biggest possible disruptions.
Protest-related deaths, total property damage, and number of recounts are a starting point, but for some of these attribution is hard and choosing a non-biased source might be difficult.
What other ideas do you have?
How do we operationalize whether the US will experience a constitutional crisis/widespread unrest after 2020 elections?