26 comments
128 forecasters
Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?
1%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Oct 3, 2020
Closes:Nov 1, 2020
Resolved:Nov 3, 2020
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 3, 2020
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
If inaugurated as President in 2025, will these 2024 presidential candidates complete a full four-year term?
68 forecasters
Will the Vice President be sworn in as President after January 21, 2025 and before January 14, 2029?
22% chance
50
Will Donald J. Trump vacate the U.S. Presidency before noon Eastern Time on January 20, 2029?
24% chance
50