Number of major wars in the 2020s

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Question

Since the end of the Second World War, the number of persons who have died from armed conflict around the world has been trending downward, especially since 2003. However, many flashpoints remain, with the potential for armed conflict to break out between such nations as India and China, Egypt and Ethiopia, and Russia and Ukraine, as well as the potential for civil wars in unstable nations.

During the years 2010-2019, 4 armed conflicts began that led to 25,000+ fatalities by 31 December 2019: the Syrian Civil War (~550,000+), the South Sudanese Civil War (~383,000), the Iraqi Civil War of 2014-2017 (~160,000) and the Yemeni Civil War (112,000+).

This question asks: How many armed conflicts will begin between 1 January 2021 and 1 January 2031 that will lead to at least 25,000 fatalities before 31 December 2031?

How many major wars will begin between 2021 and 2031?

The question will resolve based on reported fatalities on 31 December 2032 as reported by reputable news outlets or governmental organizations, (Associated Press, Reuters, the US DOD, the UN, ect.).

Wars that began before 1 January 2021 will not count, such as the ongoing war between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Terrorist attacks, even cumulated, will not count. At least one party must be the armed forces of a nation-state.

Armed conflicts between the security forces of legitimate nation states and criminals will count, such as the ongoing Mexican Drug War.

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