FORECAST
Facebook Twitter
  • Embed
  • Copy Link
    •
  • Approval
  • Set Reminder
  • Share private question
  • Unsubscribe from question
  • View Metaculus Prediction
  • {{qctrl.question.communityIsHidden ? 'Show' : 'Hide'}} Community Prediction
    •

    Your submission is now in Draft mode.

    Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

    Submit Essay

    Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

    Pending

    This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

    Submitted

    This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

    US election conceded by 17 November 2020?

    Created by yshemesh on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}.
    Community prediction hidden until {{qctrl.question.cp_hidden_period_ends_time | dateStr}}
    Published by yshemesh on {{qctrl.question.publish_time | dateStr}}.
    Partnered with Ben-Gurion University of the Negev.

    Question

    This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need to fill out this survey.

    Each question comes with a unique survey linked at the top of the question. To be eligible for prizes, you need to fill out each survey for each of the questions in this list. Read more here.

    There are growing concerns in the United States that, if he loses the elections, President Donald Trump will not concede and leave office. Trump has publicly declined to commit to accepting the election results. Previous Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton has advised Democratic candidate Joe Biden that, if initial results are close, he should not concede on election night, November 3rd. 

    This question asks: Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th?

    This question resolves positively if, at any time between 2020-11-03 (Election Day) and 2020-11-17, either candidate concede that he has lost the 2020 US Presidential Election. They may do this in any venue so long as it is public (e.g. a Tweet will suffice). They may do so using any phrasing (so long as it is sufficiently clear that they have accepted that they will not legally be President on 2021-01-21). This question resolves negatively on 2020-11-17 if neither candidate has done so.

    To participate in the contest and be eligible for the prizes, you must answer this question in the dedicated survey linked here.

    Categories:
    Politics – US
    20/20 Insight

    Make a Prediction

    Prediction

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

    Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.