136 forecasters

Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?

27%chance

ResolvedYes

The community gave this a 27% chance, and it resolved Yes.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Oct 19, 2020

Closes:

Oct 30, 2020

Resolved:

Feb 28, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 20, 2020