77 comments
136 forecasters
Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?
27%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 27% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Authors:
Opened:Oct 19, 2020
Closes:Oct 30, 2020
Resolved:Feb 28, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 20, 2020
In what year will an HIV vaccine demonstrating at least 50% efficacy in Phase III clinical trials receive regulatory approval (e.g., from the FDA or EMA) for widespread use?
Apr 2032
(09 May 2029 - Jul 2036)
Apr 2032
(09 May 2029 - Jul 2036)
3 forecasters
How many cluster-randomized trials will be published before 2027 assessing whether far-UVC reduces transmission of airborne pathogens?
1.94 CRT
(1.07 - 3.04)
1.94 CRT
(1.07 - 3.04)
4 forecasters
By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?
3% chance
54