77 comments
136 forecasters
Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?
27%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 27% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Oct 19, 2020
Closes:Oct 30, 2020
Resolved:Feb 28, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 20, 2020
In what year will an HIV vaccine demonstrating at least 50% efficacy in Phase III clinical trials receive regulatory approval (e.g., from the FDA or EMA) for widespread use?
Mar 2032
(01 Aug 2029 - Apr 2036)
Mar 2032
(01 Aug 2029 - Apr 2036)
3 forecasters
How many cluster-randomized trials will be published before 2027 assessing whether far-UVC reduces transmission of airborne pathogens?
4.63 CRT
(2.12 - 9.01)
4.63 CRT
(2.12 - 9.01)
3 forecasters
Will the FDA approve a seasonal influenza vaccine for the 2025-2026 flu season before October 1, 2025?
40% chance
42