Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

Pending

This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

Submitted

This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

Higher turnout in 2020 US elections?

Question

This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need to fill out this survey.

Each question comes with a unique survey linked at the top of the question. To be eligible for prizes, you need to fill out each survey for each of the questions in this list. Read more here.


The 59th presidential election for the United States of America will be held on November 3, 2020. Voter turnout is uncertain, in part because of the likely influence of the ongoing pandemic, but also with regard to concerns around potential voter suppression and the efficacy of voting by mail.

This question asks:

Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election be higher than 2016 by 2 percentage points or more?

Resolution will be by credible media reports. In the case of disagreement between different media outlets, the turnout calculated by the Federal Election Commission in its report on Federal Elections in 2020 will be used. See here for a copy of the 2016 report.


To participate in the contest and be eligible for the prizes, you must answer this question in the dedicated survey linked here.

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.