Question

By January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism?

Resolved:No

35 comments35

Total Forecasters112

Community Prediction

22%

(15% - 40%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 22%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

46.3

Community Peer Score

9.0

Authors:

yshemesh

Opened:

Oct 19, 2020

Closes:

Oct 30, 2020

Resolves:

Feb 14, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 20, 2020

20/20 Insight Forecasting Contest

Economy & Business

2020 Leaderboard

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Americans are feeling worse about the economy — especially Republicans

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Will the US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index exceed its 2020 peak before 2029?

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Will the US-China Tension index exceed its 2020 peak before 2029?

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Will "stagflation" occur in the United States before 2026, as measured by the "misery index" reaching 10 or more for at least three consecutive months?

Authors:

yshemesh

Opened:

Oct 19, 2020

Closes:

Oct 30, 2020

Resolves:

Feb 14, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 20, 2020

20/20 Insight Forecasting Contest

Economy & Business

2020 Leaderboard

Americans sour on US economy and anxiety over tariffs remains the chief culprit

Associated Press•Jun 24, 2025

Americans are feeling worse about the economy — especially Republicans

CNN•Jun 24, 2025

Live updates: NATO leaders are expected to endorse a new defense spending pledge

Associated Press•Jun 24, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index exceed its 2020 peak before 2029?

85%

Will the US-China Tension index exceed its 2020 peak before 2029?

73%

Will "stagflation" occur in the United States before 2026, as measured by the "misery index" reaching 10 or more for at least three consecutive months?