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Recovery of Consumer Confidence in the US


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Consumer confidence is an important economic indicator, reflecting consumers' optimism regarding the state of the economy and the outlook for their personal financial future. The indicator is tied to people's propensity to spend and save in the near-term. The OECD publishes a Consumer Confidence Indicator on monthly basis. Values over 100 indicate economic optimism, while values under 100 represent pessimism. 

In January 2020, the CCI in the US was set at 101.57. In the shadow of the COVID-19 pandemic and government restrictions in March-April 2020, consumer confidence in the US took a plunge. Since then the index has been on rise, but has not yet recovered to pre-pandemic levels. 

This question asks:

For the month of January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism?

The question resolves positively if the Consumer Confidence Index in the US in January 2021 is higher than 100, as measured by the OECD Consumer Confidence indicator. It resolves negatively if the indicator is equal to or lower than 100. The question resolves when data from the OECD for January 2021 become available.

Note, given that the CCI is normalised periodically, the CCI figure of 101.13 for February 2020 may be subject to revisions.

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