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North Korea Missile Launch by March 2021
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Over the years, North Korea has conducted a number of missile tests as part of an arms development program. North Korea has also fired a number of short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea), in what have been interpreted as political gestures.
Despite a tentative cooling of tensions between North Korea and the US in 2018 and 2019, Kim Jong-Un stated in late December 2019 that North Korea would no longer adhere to a moratorium on ICBM and nuclear testing, and that North Korea would soon demonstrate a 'new strategic weapon.'
In October 2020, North Korea unveiled a new ballistic missile at a military parade to mark 75 years of the Workers' Party of Korea.
This question asks:
Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile between November 3rd 2020 and March 1st 2021?
This question will resolve positively if a missile with a range of more than 5,500 km, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government, or by a statement of confirmation that this has happened given by any permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.) Note that the missile must not necessarily be launched successfully for a positive resolution; any confirmed launch will suffice. If an intercontinental ballistic missile is tested, even if the test fails, the question resolves positively.
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Metaculus help: Predicting
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When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.