Question

Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?

Resolved:No

67 comments67

Total Forecasters147

Community Prediction

36%

(20% - 60%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 36%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

39.7

Community Peer Score

44.8

Authors:

yshemesh

Opened:

Oct 19, 2020

Closes:

Oct 30, 2020

Resolves:

Jan 23, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 20, 2020

20/20 Insight Forecasting Contest

Politics

2020 Leaderboard

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Newsweek•Jun 17, 2025

Political violence is threaded through recent US history. The motives and justifications vary

Associated Press•Jun 15, 2025

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