147 forecasters

Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?

36%chance

36%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 36% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Oct 19, 2020

Closes:

Oct 30, 2020

Resolved:

Jan 23, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 20, 2020

20/20 Insight Forecasting Contest

🏆 2020 Leaderboard

Far fewer Americans support political violence than recent polls suggest

The Conversation•Oct 13, 2025

CBS News poll finds Americans say political violence unacceptable; concerned about more of it in future

CBS•Oct 4, 2025

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