51 comments
119 forecasters
Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3 percentage points or more?
40%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 40% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Oct 19, 2020
Closes:Oct 30, 2020
Resolved:Dec 15, 2020
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 20, 2020
Will "Change in Average Inflation Rate" correctly predict the popular vote winner in the 2028 US presidential election?
2 forecasters
Will anyone other than the Democratic or Republican nominee win a state in the 2028 US presidential election?
0.5% chance
18
What will be the Economist Democracy Index for the United States for 2026?
7.25
(6.9 - 7.6)
7.25
(6.9 - 7.6)
92 forecasters