Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Your essay is now in Draft mode

Once you submit your essay, it will be available to judges for review and you can no longer edit it. Please make sure to review eligibility criteria before submitting. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

Pending

This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

Submitted

This essay was submitted and is waiting for review by judges.

Will polling fail to call the elections?

Question

This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need to fill out this survey.

Each question comes with a unique survey linked at the top of the question. To be eligible for prizes, you need to fill out each survey for each of the questions in this list. Read more here.

Prior to the 2016 US presidential elections, the latest polling averages indicated that Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote versus Republican candidate Donald Trump by a margin of +3.2%. The true margin in the popular vote turned out to be only +2.1% in favor of Clinton. In other words, the disparity between the average margin in the polls and the true margin was 1.1%.

As of 15 October 2020, RealClearPolitics.com is reporting an average margin of +9.2% in favor of Democratic candidate Joe Biden over Donald Trump. 

This question asks:

Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3% percentage points or more?

This question resolves positively if the final results of the popular vote indicate a margin between the candidates that is wider or narrower by 3 percentage points or more than the latest available spread according to RealClearPolitics.com. The question resolves negatively if this disparity is less than 3.0%.


To participate in the contest and be eligible for the prizes, you must answer this question in the dedicated survey linked here.

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site