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Will polling fail to call the elections?
This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need to fill out this survey.
Prior to the 2016 US presidential elections, the latest polling averages indicated that Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote versus Republican candidate Donald Trump by a margin of +3.2%. The true margin in the popular vote turned out to be only +2.1% in favor of Clinton. In other words, the disparity between the average margin in the polls and the true margin was 1.1%.
This question asks:
Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3% percentage points or more?
This question resolves positively if the final results of the popular vote indicate a margin between the candidates that is wider or narrower by 3 percentage points or more than the latest available spread according to RealClearPolitics.com. The question resolves negatively if this disparity is less than 3.0%.
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Metaculus help: Predicting
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.