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Will polling fail to call the elections?


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Prior to the 2016 US presidential elections, the latest polling averages indicated that Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote versus Republican candidate Donald Trump by a margin of +3.2%. The true margin in the popular vote turned out to be only +2.1% in favor of Clinton. In other words, the disparity between the average margin in the polls and the true margin was 1.1%.

As of 15 October 2020, is reporting an average margin of +9.2% in favor of Democratic candidate Joe Biden over Donald Trump. 

This question asks:

Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3% percentage points or more?

This question resolves positively if the final results of the popular vote indicate a margin between the candidates that is wider or narrower by 3 percentage points or more than the latest available spread according to The question resolves negatively if this disparity is less than 3.0%.

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