Question
Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3 percentage points or more?
Resolved:NoTotal Forecasters119
Community Prediction
40%
(25% - 55%)
Make a Prediction
Did this actually happen?No
Community Baseline Score
27.0
Community Peer Score
33.3
Authors:
Opened:Oct 19, 2020
Closes:Oct 30, 2020
Resolves:Dec 15, 2020
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 20, 2020
Will "Change in Average Inflation Rate" correctly predict the popular vote winner in the 2028 US presidential election?
Will anyone other than the Democratic or Republican nominee win a state in the 2028 US presidential election?
1%
What will be the Economist Democracy Index for the United States for 2026?
7.55
Authors:
Opened:Oct 19, 2020
Closes:Oct 30, 2020
Resolves:Dec 15, 2020
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 20, 2020
Will "Change in Average Inflation Rate" correctly predict the popular vote winner in the 2028 US presidential election?
Will anyone other than the Democratic or Republican nominee win a state in the 2028 US presidential election?
1%
What will be the Economist Democracy Index for the United States for 2026?
7.55