• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
36 comments
89 forecasters

When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?

community
04 Aug 2022
result
30 Jun 2022 11:00
Authors:
Jgalt
Opened:Oct 29, 2020
Closes:Jan 26, 2022
Resolved:Jun 29, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 31, 2020
Future Perfect 2022 Series
Law
Politics
🏆 2016-2025 Leaderboard
AlterNet logo
'Sort of like a war' at Supreme Court as liberals clash over approach to 'generational struggle'
AlterNet•Oct 31, 2025
MSNBC logo
SCOTUS majority declines to give ‘barest form of mercy’ as National Guard ruling awaits
MSNBC•Oct 25, 2025
MSNBC logo
Ask Jordan: Could the Supreme Court block Supreme Court expansion?
MSNBC•Oct 25, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the next (post-Breyer) US Supreme Court vacancy arise?

26 Jul 2026
(04 Oct 2025 - 01 Aug 2027)
26 Jul 2026
(04 Oct 2025 - 01 Aug 2027)
33 forecasters

If Donald Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, how many US Supreme Court Justices will have been appointed by him on January 21, 2029?

4
47.8%
5
27%
3
16%
2 others
24 forecasters

Will the US Supreme Court change its membership size before 2050?

38% chance
173
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature