16 comments
62 forecasters
When will AI be able to learn to play Montezuma's Revenge in less than 30 min?
Current estimate
29 Apr 2026
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Authors:
Opened:Jan 31, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2035
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2035
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 2, 2021
What will be the highest average score among a selected subset of VideoGameBench on January 1, 2028?
48.5%
(23.5 - 80.4)
48.5%
(23.5 - 80.4)
40 forecasters
When will an artificial intelligence achieve the main ending of "The Talos Principle" without being explicitly told about this goal?
Jul 2036
(May 2032 - >Dec 2039)
Jul 2036
(May 2032 - >Dec 2039)
7 forecasters
When will an AI agent be able to win Portal 2 on its first run?
19 May 2029
(20 Apr 2027 - Oct 2032)
19 May 2029
(20 Apr 2027 - Oct 2032)
18 forecasters