16 comments
62 forecasters
When will AI be able to learn to play Montezuma's Revenge in less than 30 min?
Current estimate
19 Apr 2026
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Authors:
Opened:Jan 31, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2035
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2035
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 2, 2021
What will be the highest average score among a selected subset of VideoGameBench on January 1, 2028?
62.7%
(31.9 - 85.2)
62.7%
(31.9 - 85.2)
94 forecasters
When will an artificial intelligence achieve the main ending of "The Talos Principle" without being explicitly told about this goal?
Jul 2036
(May 2032 - >Dec 2039)
Jul 2036
(May 2032 - >Dec 2039)
7 forecasters
When will an AI agent be able to win Portal 2 on its first run?
19 Apr 2029
(27 Mar 2027 - Dec 2032)
19 Apr 2029
(27 Mar 2027 - Dec 2032)
18 forecasters