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Comparing 538 and PredictIt forecasts in 2020
Nate Silver and his FiveThirtyEight site has achieved significant notoriety for developing a system to carefully aggregate election polls to create well-calibrated statistical forecasts of outcome elections; his site publishes daily updates to predictions for primary and general elections in House, Senate and Presidential races.
Prediction markets have offered an alternative to poll aggregation in forecasting elections. Markets such as (the now defunct) InTrade, the Iowa Electronic Markets, PredictIt, and others ask users to buy and sell shares assigned to each candidate in each race, so that the price point corresponds to the probability of victory. In this question we focus on PredictIt, which allows users to place relatively small real-money bets on candidates.
Both FiveThirtyEight and PredictIt have published probabilities for each state in the 2020 Presidential Election.
Which forecasts will prove to be more accurate?
Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?
To compare, we will score each set of predictions using a Brier score averaged over all N=51 races, computed as
where enumerates the possible outcomes (i.e. possible winners) in the th race out of N, where is the forecast probability of candidate winning the th race, and is assigned 1 if candidate wins the th race, and 0 otherwise.
For example, if PredictIt assigned 52% to Trump and 48% to Biden in Texas and if Trump won then PredictIt would achieve a Brier Score of
A lower Brier score is better, with perfect predictions corresponding to S=0.
This question resolves positively if the Brier score for the 51 races is lower for 538's probabilities than for PredictIt's probabilities, where we will take values as of 1400 UTC on 02-Nov-2020, and election outcomes as reported over the coming days.
To obtain the PredictIt probabilities, we will download the market data from here ; take the average of the prices for each contract (ie (bestSellYesCost + bestBuyYesCost + (1-bestSellNoCost) + (1-bestBuyNoCost))/4) ; and convert to probabilities as Dem_Probability = Dem_Price / (Dem_Price + Rep_Price).
To obtain the 538 probabilities we will download the CSV from here and take the winstate_inc for Republicans and winstate_chal for Democrats in each state. (Ignoring congressional district specific probabilities)
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.