Japan Host Games Advantage

Your submission is now in Draft mode. Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Question

There is a phenomenon at the Olympics where by the host country tends to outperform it's recent performances

Japan is hosting the Olympics in 2021. Will they place significantly higher in the medal table than they have in recent years. Their last 5 placings were:

2000: 15th 2004: 5th 2008: 8th 2012: 11th 2016: 6th

Will they come in the Top 4 again?

Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics

This question will resolve positively if Japan place in the top 4 (ties resolve positively) at the Olympics being held in 2021. It will resolve ambiguously if the Olympics do not take place in 2021.

The medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:

  1. Number of Gold Medals
  2. (Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals
  3. (Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals
Categories:
Sports

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site