53 comments
269 forecasters
Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?
57%chance
5 pp this week
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Authors:
Opened:Nov 5, 2020
Closes:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 7, 2020
When will the first AI-generated book be on the New York Times Best Seller list?
10 Oct 2029
(22 Feb 2027 - Mar 2035)
10 Oct 2029
(22 Feb 2027 - Mar 2035)
99 forecasters
By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?
40% chance
131
When will a language model be developed that, when tested, yields approximately human-level output?
05 Jun 2024
(05 May 2023 - 10 Feb 2027)
05 Jun 2024
(05 May 2023 - 10 Feb 2027)
36 forecasters