9 comments
132 forecasters
by 2021, will SLAC complete an "accelerator-on-a-chip" prototype with an acceleration gradient of 1 GeV/meter?
59%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 59% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jan 5, 2016
Closes:Jan 3, 2018
Resolved:Mar 17, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 7, 2016
Will a Chinese fab achieve a process with a density of greater than 150M transistors per square millimeter by 2027?
79% chance
31
When will a muon collider turn on with a center-of-mass beam energy ≥1 TeV?
Jan 2048
(Jan 2041 - Apr 2057)
Jan 2048
(Jan 2041 - Apr 2057)
5 forecasters
Will SpinLaunch lift a satellite to low Earth orbit by 2032?
4% chance
64