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States flipping in 2020 election
As of Nov 9th, the state markets on predictit are still pricing in significant uncertainty. The following states have at least 5% implied odds of flipping from the current winner:
Nevada (90% to Biden)
Arizona (84% to Biden)
Wisconsin (88% to Biden)
Michigan (90% to Biden)
Georgia (83% to Biden)
North Carolina (95% to Trump)
Pennsylvania (87% to Biden)
Alaska (95% to Trump).
Will any states flip from the current projected winner?
This question resolves positively if any of the markets above resolve in favor of the current "underdog" candidate, or if the market for any other state currently called by the networks for one candidate ultimately resolves for a different candidate.
This question resolves negatively if all of the state markets at predictit resolve in the direction of the current leader.
This question resolves ambiguously if any state market at predictit resolves ambiguously, or if any state conducts a second election in order to determine presidential electors for 2020.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.